USDJPY Trade Signal – 24/9/25

USDJPY Trade Signal – 24/9/25 USD/JPY is approaching a pivotal inflection point after the Fed initiated its easing cycle with a 25 bp cut and the BoJ signaled a gradual but discernible hawkish shift. That combination compresses the once-dominant policy divergence that powered the pair higher through 2024 – 25. With spot around 147.89, rallies back into 148.40–149.00 run directly into a dense supply zone capped by 150, an area repeatedly associated with official sensitivity and prior failures. In a benign risk backdrop (VIX mid-teens), yen strength is less about flight-to-safety and more about a policy and valuation catch-up, which is exactly the environment where fades into overhead resistance tend to work. Technically, price has carved out a lower-high sequence beneath 149 – 150, momentum is flagging, and liquidity pockets sit below 147.20. That sets up asymmetric risk: sell strength into 148s / low – 149s with a clearly defined invalidation on a daily close above 150.30 (hard stop 150.50), and look for continuation as 147.20 gives way. From a sentiment/positioning lens, speculative yen shorts remain elevated, leaving USD/JPY vulnerable to a positioning squeeze if support breaks. Near-term catalysts, Tokyo CPI (early Friday UK time) and US core PCE (Friday 13:30 UK), provide the macro “spark” that can unlock a move toward 145.80 and then 144.60 if the data reinforce convergence. USDJPY Trade Signal: Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+  Near-term catalysts (UK time) USDJPY 147.8900 SELL pullbacks 148.40 – 149.00 (scale), add on break <147.20 Invalidate on daily close >150.30 (hard stop 150.50) 145.80  – 144.60 Fundamentals: Fed cut 25bp last week and signaled further easing; BoJ held but flagged a hawkish tilt (unwind ETFs; 2 votes to hike), narrowing policy divergence. Technicals: 149–150 is heavy supply/psych round-number; prior intervention zone. Sentiment: Risk is steady (VIX ~16.6) so JPY upside likely comes via policy, not panic; IMM yen positioning is stretched, increasing squeeze risk if 147s give way (per latest CFTC report week ending Sep 16). Today: German IFO 09:00 US New Home Sales 15:00; EIA Weekly Oil 15:30. Thu: US Durable Goods 13:30. Fri: Tokyo CPI  – 00:30; US PCE 13:30 U. Michigan 15:00. Chart by TradingView – USDJPY Trade Signal – 24.9.25 Conclusion This is an A+ short because all three pillars align: 1. Fundamentals—narrowing Fed / BoJ stance. 2. Technicals—well-defined sell zone at 148.40–149.00 with invalidation above 150.30/50. 3. Sentiment/Positioning—stretched yen shorts and clustered stops below 147.20. The plan is to fade rallies, scale in within the zone, add on a clean break of 147.20, and manage risk tightly: hard stop 150.50, with targets at 145.80 (take partials, trail) and 144.60 (secondary take-profit). Key risks to this view include a hot US PCE that re-steepens US rate expectations, or unexpectedly dovish BoJ communication that re-widens policy divergence, both would reduce downside impulse and could trigger the stop. Conversely, a firmer Tokyo CPI or soft PCE would likely accelerate the breakdown. Execution-wise, stay disciplined around the levels, reduce risk into major data, and trail stops lower after first take-profit to protect gains while keeping powder dry to re-sell any reflex rallies toward 148s. For similar Forex Trade Signals please visit our forex trade ideas page. Please visit our Disclaimer page. Disclaimer Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. 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