Week Ahead in Markets – 22 – 26 Sep
As we head into the week of 22–26 September 2025, markets will key off a tight cluster of high impact data that shape the near-term path for markets. Our focus is on forward-looking activity gauges (flash PMIs), US growth and capex signals (Q2 GDP revision, durable goods, weekly claims), and pivotal inflation reads (Australia’s monthly CPI and, most importantly, Friday’s US PCE/core PCE).
PCE Data
The marquee print is Friday’s US Personal Income & Outlays for August – i.e., the PCE and core PCE price indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Consensus expects another month of sticky-but-gradually-cooling core; the release hits at 13:30 BST and will set the tone for October rate-cut odds and the USD’s closing-week direction. Pair it with the final read on U-Mich sentiment at 15:00 BST to gauge the household demand pulse into Q4.
Flash Sep PMI’s
Before we get there, Tuesday is PMI day. Flash September PMIs land across the Eurozone, the UK and the US. For Europe and the UK, watch whether services hold above 50 while manufacturing stabilises – a divergence that’s mattered for EUR and GBP resilience on data beats. The US flash at 14:45 BST gives a timely read on demand, pricing and employment components; any renewed price-pressure hints would complicate the “Fed cuts” narrative.
Wednesday brings Germany’s Ifo business climate – still one of the cleanest single-shot reads on Eurozone growth expectations. A surprise uptick would buttress the “soft landing” narrative and typically underpins EUR on the crosses; a miss re-opens stagnation fears.
US GDP
Thursday is a US-heavy session. At 13:30 BST you get (1) the third estimate of Q2 GDP plus corporate profits revisions – the latter often nudges equity and credit sentiment – and (2) August durable goods orders, the best monthly proxy for capex momentum. Weekly jobless claims print alongside; markets remain hypersensitive to any fresh softening in labor signals. Together, these pieces frame Friday’s PCE risk and can move the front end and DXY well before we see inflation.
Tokyo CPI
JPY traders: Tokyo CPI (Sep, preliminary) lands late in the London evening Thursday (around 00:30 BST Fri). With BoJ rhetoric increasingly data-dependent, any upside surprise in core-core (ex-fresh food & energy) can quickly firm rate-hike pricing and support the yen into month-end.
Price Catalysts
AUD and NZD see second-tier but tradable catalysts. Australia’s monthly CPI Indicator (Aug) is due Wednesday local (overnight for Europe) and has been a reliable volatility event for AUD crosses as markets test how quickly the RBA can ease. New Zealand’s recent data flow has skewed softer; keep an eye on follow-through after last week’s weak GDP and the latest trade prints.
Macro backdrop to keep in mind: the Fed’s reaction function has tilted more toward labor-market risk even as inflation grinds lower — which means claims, PMI employment indices and U-Mich labor components can punch above their weight this week. Positioning into Friday’s PCE is likely to dominate USD direction and cross-asset risk appetite.
Week Ahead in Markets (BST)
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Tue (23 Sep) – Flash PMIs: Eurozone/UK (morning), US (14:45). Watch services vs. manufacturing spread and price-pressure sub-indices for policy-relevant signals.
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Wed (24 Sep) – Germany Ifo (08:00 GMT/09:00 BST approx): growth expectations lens for EUR. Australia monthly CPI (Aug) overnight.
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Thu (25 Sep) – US GDP (Q2, 3rd est.) + Durable Goods (Aug) + Weekly Claims (all 13:30), risk to USD front end; equities sensitive to corporate-profits revisions.
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Fri (26 Sep) – US PCE/core PCE (Aug) at 13:30 sets the week’s finale; U-Mich Sentiment (final Sep) at 15:00 for demand-side color. Tokyo CPI (Sep prelim) hits around 00:30.
Trading angles
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USD: If PMIs and claims hint at further labor softening, the bar for a dovish PCE reaction lowers; conversely, firm PMIs & hot PCE keeps October cut odds in check and supports DXY.
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EUR/GBP: Resilience requires services staying expansionary and Ifo stabilising. A broad PMI miss re-opens policy-divergence trades vs USD.
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JPY: Upside CPI risks into BoJ – watch keep dips shallow if core-core surprises higher.
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AUD/NZD: Australia CPI surprise > RBA path; NZ sentiment still fragile post-GDP.
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