Author: TerraBullMarkets

EURCHF Trade Setup – 02.10.25 As of Thu, 2 Oct 2025 , EUR/CHF is consolidating just above 0.93 after a multi-session basing pattern. We are initiating a pro-EUR/CHF long with a scale-in on dips (0.9320–0.9340) and an add on sustained acceptance above 0.9375. The edge is clean and asymmetric: Fundamentally, the SNB has the policy rate at 0% and continues to signal a willingness to be active in FX to avoid undesired CHF strength, historically a strong cap on abrupt CHF appreciation. On the euro side, the latest flash HICP holding a touch above target reduces the urgency for further…...

USDJPY Trade Setup – 01.10.25 As of Wednesday, 1 Oct 2025 (06:55 UK), USD/JPY is trading in the 147s, having faded repeatedly below the 150 ceiling. Our plan is a tactical short, selling 147.90–148.30 into supply and adding on a break below 147.20. The edge comes from the three-way alignment of drivers: Fundamentals: BoJ’s trajectory toward further normalization versus U.S. growth/data uncertainty and shutdown noise Technicals: a series of lower highs under 150 with 147.20 the pivot that unlocks downside Sentiment / positioning: elevated speculative JPY shorts that are vulnerable to a squeeze if U.S. data underwhelms or risk appetite…...

GBPJPY Trade Setup – 30.9.25 As of Tuesday, 30 September 2025 (05:17 UK), GBP/JPY is hovering just below the psychologically important 200 handle after repeated intraday rejections. We are initiating a tactical short, looking to sell into 199.80–200.30 with an add-on below 198.80. The trade’s edge is threefold: Fundamentally, the BoE’s recent shift toward a more dovish, growth-sensitive stance reduces sterling’s carry appeal, while Japan’s policy trajectory and improving corporate sentiment keep a risk of further BoJ normalization in play—supportive of the yen on dips. Technically, the pair has carved out lower momentum highs into a well-defined supply zone around…...

Chicago PMI SEP – What to Expect – 30.9.25 On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 14:45 UK (09:45 ET), the MNI Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) offers an early read on Midwest activity across manufacturing-adjacent firms and services-facing suppliers, often a tone-setter ahead of national PMIs. After August’s drop to 41.5, signaling a deep contraction), consensus expectation are sitting at 40.0 while we are looking for a modest stabilization near 41.2. The balance of signals, mixed regional Fed surveys, a softer but still expanding national flash output picture, and firmer August durables orders, argues against a collapse into the 30s…

USDCAD Trade Setup – 29.9.25 We think USD/CAD is offering a clean trend-continuation long after a multi-week staircase higher built on policy divergence, soft Canadian growth momentum, and subdued crude. The BoC’s recent cut and guidance that further easing is possible keeps the front end in Canada heavier than in the U.S., while domestic activity data have been choppy at best—an unfriendly backdrop for CAD when oil is stuck in the mid-60s. That macro mix supports buy-the-dip behavior so long as price holds above the most recent breakout shelf. Technically, the pair is respecting a rising structure from the mid-1.36s…...

US JOLTs Job Openings Preview – 30.9.25 On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the BLS releases August JOLTS, one of the cleanest reads on underlying U.S. labor demand and an input the Fed watches for confirmation that the jobs market is re-balancing without undue stress. July openings printed 7.181M, with quits steady at 2.0%, leaving roughly one unemployed worker per vacancy, far cooler than 2022’s extremes but still tight by historical standards. For August, our base case is a modest downside versus the 7.1M consensus, with a point estimate around 7.0 – 7.05M. That call leans…

US Pending Home Sales AUG – What to Expect On Monday, 29 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the National Association of Realtors releases the August Pending Home Sales report, an MLS-based gauge of contract signings that typically leads existing-home closings by one to two months. Against a backdrop of slightly easier mortgage rates, higher active inventory, and softening new-listing flow, our base case looks for modest stabilization rather than a surge in demand. Specifically, we expect MoM +0.2% (vs Street +0.1% and your +1.7% forecast) and YoY roughly flat (0.0%) (vs your +1.9%). The drivers are a small…

Macro Data Week Ahead – 29 Sep – Fri 3 Oct 2025 Following the Fed’s September cut, markets are now hyper-sensitive to signs that growth is cooling without re-accelerating inflation. The week ahead stacks US housing, regional manufacturing, confidence, ISM Manufacturing & Services, JOLTS, claims, factory orders, and culminates in NFP. All under the cloud of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay or disrupt releases. The balance of evidence into quarter-end: manufacturing subdued, services steady, labor loosening, and housing constrained by affordability, even with mortgage rates off their peaks. Big Picture Setup (why this week matters) Fed reaction…

USDJPY Trade Setup – 26.9.25 USD/JPY is hovering just below the marquee 150.00 handle into today’s 13:30 (BST) PCE release. Our base case (core PCE 0.2% m/m, income 0.3%, spending 0.6%) argues for slightly softer front-end U.S. yields, shrinking the rate gap between US and Japan enough to blunt dollar carry without undermining broader risk. Against that, Japan’s policy skew is inching less dovish (BoJ language, steady Tokyo inflation), while the 150.00–150.60 zone remains a well-telegraphed supply / option-barrier area with elevated official sensitivity. Technically, repeated failures into 150 signal distribution, and positioning/flow dynamics (exporter offers, barrier defense, and crowded…...

EURCHF Trade Setup – 25/9/25 EUR/CHF is setting up on the long side as policy and price action align into today’s SNB decision. After months of gradual mean reversion from sub – 0.92, spot has carved a durable base above 0.93, with shallow pullbacks and tighter intraday ranges suggesting dip absorption rather than distribution. The immediate focus is the 0.9310 – 0.9340 demand shelf and a momentum trigger through 0.9380 that would open the path toward 0.9430 / 0.9500. From a macro lens, the balance of risks tilts against an overtly strong franc. Swiss inflation has cooled back toward target…...