Author: TerraBullMarkets

Core PCE – What To Expect – 26.9.25 On Friday, 26 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the BEA releases the August personal income and outlays report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the cleanest read on consumer momentum. Our base case is Core PCE +0.2% m/m, Personal Income +0.3% m/m, and Personal Spending +0.6% m/m. This view reflects the August CPI–to–PCE translation (lighter shelter weight in PCE, mixed airfare/medical dynamics), the drag from weaker PPI trade margins on goods prices, steady but unspectacular labor-income growth, and firm nominal spending signals from retail sales/control. The aim here is to frame…

USDJPY Trade Signal – 24/9/25 USD/JPY is approaching a pivotal inflection point after the Fed initiated its easing cycle with a 25 bp cut and the BoJ signaled a gradual but discernible hawkish shift. That combination compresses the once-dominant policy divergence that powered the pair higher through 2024 – 25. With spot around 147.89, rallies back into 148.40–149.00 run directly into a dense supply zone capped by 150, an area repeatedly associated with official sensitivity and prior failures. In a benign risk backdrop (VIX mid-teens), yen strength is less about flight-to-safety and more about a policy and valuation catch-up, which…...

US Durable Goods Orders Preview – 25/9/25 On Thursday, 25 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release August Durable Goods Orders, a timely read on manufacturing momentum and private-sector capex (capital expenditure) that feeds directly into Q3 GDP tracking. Given July’s headline slide (-2.8% m/m) driven largely by transportation volatility, this print matters for two reasons: 1 – whether transportation, especially non-defense aircraft, reverses enough to lift the headline. 2 – whether the underlying trend in core orders (non-defense ex-aircraft) continues to grind higher after July’s encouraging gains. With consensus looking for a modest decline…

USDCHF Trade Signal – 22.09.25 USD/CHF remains a high-conviction sell-the-rally after the Fed’s risk-management cut pushed the policy path toward further easing while the franc’s near-term driver is largely the USD leg into Tuesday’s PMIs and Thursday’s SNB. Technically, spot continues to trade beneath the 0.79 – 0.80 supply band, a zone that has capped every bounce since August. Positioning adds confluence: speculative and retail communities remain tilted long USD/CHF, leaving the pair vulnerable to downside squeezes whenever US data underwhelm or yields soften. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is unchanged: fade 0.7965 – 0.8015, add on momentum through…...

US PMI Data – What to Expect – 23.9.25 PMIs land Tuesday, 23 Sep 2025 at 14:45 UK.  We expect a resilient consumer, tentative factory momentum, split regional signals, tariff pressure on prices, and a cooler jobs pulse. This article lays out what to watch and how markets might move. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed regional manufacturing surveys (Philadelphia strength vs. Empire softness), tariff-linked price pressures, and a labor market that’s cooling at the margin. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed…

 Week Ahead in Markets – 22 – 26 Sep As we head into the week of 22–26 September 2025, markets will key off a tight cluster of high impact data that shape the near-term path for markets. Our focus is on forward-looking activity gauges (flash PMIs), US growth and capex signals (Q2 GDP revision, durable goods, weekly claims), and pivotal inflation reads (Australia’s monthly CPI and, most importantly, Friday’s US PCE/core PCE). PCE Data The marquee print is Friday’s US Personal Income & Outlays for August – i.e., the PCE and core PCE price indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Consensus…

GBPUSD Trade Setup – Update Following BoE – 18/9/2025 After a largish downtick into the U.S. open, trading at -0.52% – 1.3554 at time of writing, price has rotated back into our buy-the-dip zone without breaking structure. The BoE’s hold with slower QT keeps the domestic backdrop supportive on the margin, while the Fed’s easing path remains a medium-term USD headwind, even if intraday dollar firmness created the pullback. Technically, the pair continues to defend the 1.35 – 1.36 pivot (former resistance turned support), and positioning remains favorable: GBP isn’t a crowded long and retail traders typically lean short into…...

UK Retail Sales Aug – 19/9/2025 – What to Expect U.K. consumers step back into focus on Friday, 19 September 2025 at 07:00 BST, when the ONS publishes August Retail Sales. After July’s solid +0.6% m/m (+1.1% y/y), the street is looking for +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y. Our estimate base case is a touch firmer – +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y – reflecting supportive seasonal dynamics (back-to-school, warm weather) and steady non-food momentum, partly offset by still-cautious essentials spending. Softer goods inflation should also help translate value growth into modest volume gains. Headline calls Retail Sales MoM (volumes): +0.5%…

USDCHF Trade Setup – 18/9/2025 USD/CHF sits in a well-defined downtrend after the FOMC delivered a 25 bp “risk-management” cut and reaffirmed an easing path, leaving the dollar with a medium-term headwind despite the brief post-presser firming in yields and DXY. Into today’s US data and ahead of next week’s SNB, the USD leg remains the primary driver. Technically, 0.79–0.80 has acted as a persistent supply pocket, and sentiment adds confluence: retail remains heavily long USD/CHF while earlier-month CFTC prints showed CHF selling—both supportive of downside squeezes on any USD softness. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is to sell…...

Initial Jobless Claims What to Expect – 18/9/25 U.S. labor-market momentum gets a fresh read on Thursday, 18 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when Initial Jobless Claims hit the tape. Following last week’s spike to 263k, the street is looking for 240k, while our base case is a softer-landing 250k, a partial unwind of holiday-related distortions but still above the summer trend. Beyond the headline, we’ll focus on continuing claims, the four-week average, and any state-level breadth that confirms cooling demand for workers. With rates and the dollar sensitive to signs of slack, a print above consensus would typically favor…