EURCHF Trade Setup – 3/9/2025 EURCHF is setting up as a high-conviction long with fundamentals, technicals, and positioning pulling in the same direction. On the macro side, the SNB’s easy stance and willingness to lean against CHF strength leave the franc with a softer bias, while the euro’s data pulse has stabilized, reducing downside tails...
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ISM Services PMI Expectations – 4/9/2025US ISM Services PMI (Aug) — Preview & Market FramingThursday’s ISM Services PMI release (04 Sep, 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a market already parsing mixed signals – manufacturing still sub-50, labor demand has been gradually cooling, and services-led inflation has been proving sticky. Consensus looks for a modest return to expansion near 51.0 (prior 50.1); our base case sits just above the 50 line at 50.7–51.0.What will matter most isn’t the headline alone but the composition:Business Activity and New Orders gauge near-term growth momentum; sustained prints above 52 would further support a…
EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025 Thesis: Stay constructive EUR/USD and EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup buy weakness. The pair is carving a sequence of higher lows since mid-August while the macro backdrop tilts USD-soft as markets lean toward a September Fed cut and real yields compress (gold’s strength is the tell). Options flow...
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ISM Manufacturing PMI Expectations – 2/9/2025 Our ISM Manufacturing PMI’s Analysis The August ISM Manufacturing PMI lands into a messy—but improving—backdrop. The Street sits around 48.6 (vs. 48.0 in July), while our call is a touch firmer at 49.0 (48.5–49.5): still contractionary, but edging closer to the 50 break-even. What nudges us above consensus isn’t a single blowout print, but a mosaic: the S&P Global flash at 53.3 (which typically runs hotter than ISM) points to firmer orders and output; core capex orders +1.1% m/m and shipments +0.7% in July hint at steadier equipment demand; and the regional picture, though…
26th August – USDCHF Short GBPAUD Long Markets head into the final week of August with a clear “cut-watch” bias after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks nudged major houses toward a September Fed easing call. With durable goods due today, Q2 GDP (2nd) later in the week, and July PCE on Friday, the dollar’s rallies...
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USD/JPY Long-Trend Setup USD/JPY Long-Trend Setup: Why 148–150 Is Back on the Radar The dollar-yen cross has snapped out of its early-summer drift and vaulted back above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since February, reaching ¥147.19 on 9 July – a two-and-a-half-week high – as the greenback rides an upswing in...
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USDCHF, EURUSD & USDJPY: High-Conviction FX Trade Setups to Watch After SNB and Fed Shifts Financial markets are tip-toeing through one of the trickiest macro cross-currents in years. The Federal Reserve has just delivered a “hawkish pause”, trimming its forecast for future easing while warning that Donald Trump’s tariff volley could lift goods-price inflation over...
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UK Inflation Miss Sparks Dovish BoE Talk as Oil Prices and Fed Loom Large Inflation Underdelivers in the UK as Markets Eye BoE and Global Risk Sentiment Fresh UK inflation data released Wednesday offered little validation for the Bank of England’s recent hawkish rhetoric, as softer-than-expected figures in key areas reignited dovish speculation just ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. Headline CPI for May came in at 3.4% year-on-year, a slight deceleration but marginally above expectations. Core inflation met forecasts at 3.5%. However, the services inflation component—closely monitored by the BoE as a gauge of domestic pricing pressure—slipped to…
Forex Markets News – 11th June Markets on Edge Ahead of US CPI as BoJ Flags Heightened Global Uncertainty Markets are treading cautiously midweek as investors prepare for potentially market-moving US inflation data, while Japanese central bank officials warn of ongoing global economic uncertainty. Sentiment is being shaped by three key drivers: Wednesday’s highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, lackluster market response to a tentative US-China trade deal, and comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda underscoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. BoJ’s Ueda: Global and Domestic Economic Risks Remain Elevated Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda offered…
EUR/USD Rebounds as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of US-China Trade Talks and CPI Data EUR/USD Rises as Focus Shifts from US Jobs Data to US-China Trade Talks and Inflation Outlook The euro is starting the week with a modest recovery against the US dollar, regaining some ground after Friday’s sharp drop triggered by a surprisingly strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. EUR/USD has ticked up to around 1.1415 in Monday’s early European session, following Friday’s low of 1.1370. The upbeat US employment report initially boosted the dollar, as markets reacted to the better-than-expected job creation in May. However, the greenback’s…
