US JOLTs Job Openings Preview – 30.9.25 On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the BLS releases August JOLTS, one of the cleanest reads on underlying U.S. labor demand and an input the Fed watches for confirmation that the jobs market is re-balancing without undue stress. July openings printed 7.181M, with quits steady at 2.0%, leaving roughly one unemployed worker per vacancy, far cooler than 2022’s extremes but still tight by historical standards. For August, our base case is a modest downside versus the 7.1M consensus, with a point estimate around 7.0 – 7.05M. That call leans…
Author: TerraBullMarkets
US Pending Home Sales AUG – What to Expect On Monday, 29 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the National Association of Realtors releases the August Pending Home Sales report, an MLS-based gauge of contract signings that typically leads existing-home closings by one to two months. Against a backdrop of slightly easier mortgage rates, higher active inventory, and softening new-listing flow, our base case looks for modest stabilization rather than a surge in demand. Specifically, we expect MoM +0.2% (vs Street +0.1% and your +1.7% forecast) and YoY roughly flat (0.0%) (vs your +1.9%). The drivers are a small…
Macro Data Week Ahead – 29 Sep – Fri 3 Oct 2025 Following the Fed’s September cut, markets are now hyper-sensitive to signs that growth is cooling without re-accelerating inflation. The week ahead stacks US housing, regional manufacturing, confidence, ISM Manufacturing & Services, JOLTS, claims, factory orders, and culminates in NFP. All under the cloud of a potential U.S. government shutdown that could delay or disrupt releases. The balance of evidence into quarter-end: manufacturing subdued, services steady, labor loosening, and housing constrained by affordability, even with mortgage rates off their peaks. Big Picture Setup (why this week matters) Fed reaction…
USDJPY Trade Setup – 26.9.25 USD/JPY is hovering just below the marquee 150.00 handle into today’s 13:30 (BST) PCE release. Our base case (core PCE 0.2% m/m, income 0.3%, spending 0.6%) argues for slightly softer front-end U.S. yields, shrinking the rate gap between US and Japan enough to blunt dollar carry without undermining broader risk. Against that, Japan’s policy skew is inching less dovish (BoJ language, steady Tokyo inflation), while the 150.00–150.60 zone remains a well-telegraphed supply / option-barrier area with elevated official sensitivity. Technically, repeated failures into 150 signal distribution, and positioning/flow dynamics (exporter offers, barrier defense, and crowded…...
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EURCHF Trade Setup – 25/9/25 EUR/CHF is setting up on the long side as policy and price action align into today’s SNB decision. After months of gradual mean reversion from sub – 0.92, spot has carved a durable base above 0.93, with shallow pullbacks and tighter intraday ranges suggesting dip absorption rather than distribution. The immediate focus is the 0.9310 – 0.9340 demand shelf and a momentum trigger through 0.9380 that would open the path toward 0.9430 / 0.9500. From a macro lens, the balance of risks tilts against an overtly strong franc. Swiss inflation has cooled back toward target…...
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Core PCE – What To Expect – 26.9.25 On Friday, 26 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the BEA releases the August personal income and outlays report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the cleanest read on consumer momentum. Our base case is Core PCE +0.2% m/m, Personal Income +0.3% m/m, and Personal Spending +0.6% m/m. This view reflects the August CPI–to–PCE translation (lighter shelter weight in PCE, mixed airfare/medical dynamics), the drag from weaker PPI trade margins on goods prices, steady but unspectacular labor-income growth, and firm nominal spending signals from retail sales/control. The aim here is to frame…
USDJPY Trade Signal – 24/9/25 USD/JPY is approaching a pivotal inflection point after the Fed initiated its easing cycle with a 25 bp cut and the BoJ signaled a gradual but discernible hawkish shift. That combination compresses the once-dominant policy divergence that powered the pair higher through 2024 – 25. With spot around 147.89, rallies back into 148.40–149.00 run directly into a dense supply zone capped by 150, an area repeatedly associated with official sensitivity and prior failures. In a benign risk backdrop (VIX mid-teens), yen strength is less about flight-to-safety and more about a policy and valuation catch-up, which…...
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US Durable Goods Orders Preview – 25/9/25 On Thursday, 25 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the U.S. Census Bureau will release August Durable Goods Orders, a timely read on manufacturing momentum and private-sector capex (capital expenditure) that feeds directly into Q3 GDP tracking. Given July’s headline slide (-2.8% m/m) driven largely by transportation volatility, this print matters for two reasons: 1 – whether transportation, especially non-defense aircraft, reverses enough to lift the headline. 2 – whether the underlying trend in core orders (non-defense ex-aircraft) continues to grind higher after July’s encouraging gains. With consensus looking for a modest decline…
USDCHF Trade Signal – 22.09.25 USD/CHF remains a high-conviction sell-the-rally after the Fed’s risk-management cut pushed the policy path toward further easing while the franc’s near-term driver is largely the USD leg into Tuesday’s PMIs and Thursday’s SNB. Technically, spot continues to trade beneath the 0.79 – 0.80 supply band, a zone that has capped every bounce since August. Positioning adds confluence: speculative and retail communities remain tilted long USD/CHF, leaving the pair vulnerable to downside squeezes whenever US data underwhelm or yields soften. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is unchanged: fade 0.7965 – 0.8015, add on momentum through…...
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US PMI Data – What to Expect – 23.9.25 PMIs land Tuesday, 23 Sep 2025 at 14:45 UK. We expect a resilient consumer, tentative factory momentum, split regional signals, tariff pressure on prices, and a cooler jobs pulse. This article lays out what to watch and how markets might move. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed regional manufacturing surveys (Philadelphia strength vs. Empire softness), tariff-linked price pressures, and a labor market that’s cooling at the margin. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed…
