Author: TerraBullMarkets

EURUSD Trade Idea – 12/9/2025 We are initiating a sell-the-rally stance in EUR/USD, preferring entries into 1.1745–1.1780 where price has repeatedly met supply, with a momentum add below 1.1690 if sellers regain control. The near-term macro skew still leans USD-firm after the hotter-than-expected August CPI, while the ECB’s hold and data-dependent tone offers little incremental support for the euro. Into today’s UK GDP and University of Michigan prints – and with the FOMC up next—the balance of risks favors USD resilience over EUR follow-through. Positioning adds asymmetry: EUR remains net-long among speculative accounts, leaving room for a disappointment bleed if…...

EURJPY Trade Idea – 11/9/2025 EURJPY Trade Idea: We’re treating 173.00–173.80 as the primary fade zone in EUR/JPY, with a tactical add only on a clear wick/rejection in 174.10–174.40. Risk is tightly defined at 174.60 (or a daily close >174.40). The edge is three-fold: fundamentals (ECB likely cautious while the yen retains haven support into next week’s BoJ), technicals (repeated failures beneath 174–175 with rising-wedge risk), and positioning (EUR long vs JPY long—an ECB underwhelm plus any risk-off tends to push the cross lower). Initial magnets sit at 171.10, then 169.40. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation…...

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview – 12th September We head into tomorrow’s print looking for a modest softening in sentiment following August’s downtick. The prior headline was 58.2; consensus is currently 58, and we are looking look for slightly below at 56.5 – 57.0. Our bias reflects softer labor perceptions and a small uptick in gasoline prices keeping inflation expectations sticky, partly offset by equity strength and easier mortgage rates. Market impact should be contained unless we see an outsized move in 1-yr inflation expectations (above 5%) or a headline below 55, which would carry clearer implications for front-end rates and…

US CPI & Initial Weekly Claims Preview – 11/9/2025 The August CPI lands on Thu 11 Sep, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET) alongside Initial Jobless Claims, setting the tone for front-end rates and the USD ahead of the Fed blackout. The Street is looking for Core CPI +0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY) with the CPI index at 323.9. Our base case is the same. Sticky services (most notably shelter) offset by soft core goods, with travel categories the being the key swing risk. Claims should remain range bound (235–240k), consistent with a gradually cooling but still resilient labor market. Upside core risk…

USDJPY Trade Idea – 10/9/2025 We approach USD/JPY with a fade-rallies bias into 147.80–148.60 (contingency fade near 149.00 only on a clear intraday rejection). The macro skew remains USD-negative into this week’s U.S. inflation prints after softer labor data, while Japan’s political headlines and next week’s BoJ keep the yen’s haven bid in play. Technically, 148–149 is a well-defined supply ledge from prior failures—an attractive place to define risk. Positioning adds edge: speculative accounts remain biased long JPY, so dips tend to encounter demand. Our line in the sand is 149.40 (or a daily close above 149.20), which would indicate…...

US PPI Expectations Preview – 10/9/2025 US PPI Expectations Preview: Producer Price Index (Aug) — Brief Preview The August PPI (Wed 10 Sep, 13:30 UK / 08:30 ET) is a key pipeline read into core PCE via core‐goods and business services costs. After July’s outsized +0.9% jump, driven largely by services margins – consensus looks for cooler prints (headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.3% to 0.4%, core y/y 3.5 to3.6%). The market will focus on three things: (1) whether trade services and fee categories mean-revert, (2) the core-core gauge (ex food, energy, and trade) as the cleanest signal for policy, and…

USDCHF Trade Idea – 9/9/2025 We’re approaching USD/CHF with a sell-the-rally framework into 0.7960–0.8000, with a tactical add on any failed break of 0.8035–0.8060. The macro skew is USD-negative into this week’s inflation prints, while the franc retains a defensive bid ahead of the late-September SNB meeting. Technically, the pair has accepted below 0.80 with repeated rejections in 0.80–0.81, keeping risk/reward attractive with a tight invalidation at 0.8065 (or daily close >0.8050). Positioning adds edge: CHF specs remain net-short, leaving room for short-covering if USD softens on data. Key timing cues are US PPI (Wed 13:30 UK) and US CPI…...

GBPJPY Trade Idea – 8/9/2025 Here’s the framework for this week’s GBP/JPY trade. We’re treating the latest pop as headline-driven and prefer fading strength into the 200.60–201.40 supply zone, with risk defined above 202.00/202.30. The setup scores A+ as it aligns fundamentals (event-heavy week with US PPI/CPI and UK GDP that can restore JPY’s haven bid), technicals (repeated supply between 200–202), and sentiment/positioning (GBP shorts and JPY longs can accelerate downside on risk-off). Execution is tactical: wait for a clear rejection or momentum roll in the zone, then target 197.20 and 194.80, trailing under emerging lower highs. If we close…...

BLS Nonfarm Payrolls – Preliminary Benchmark Revision On Tuesday, 9 September 2025 at 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its BLS Nonfarm Payrolls preliminary annual benchmark revision, an annual re-anchor of the CES survey to unemployment-insurance tax records (QCEW) at the March 2025 benchmark. This is a level adjustment at a single date and not a republication of the full monthly path; the full history will be revised with the January 2026 Employment Situation released in February 2026. Street previews lean toward a material downward revision (−0.3% to −0.6%), and our base case is…

Gold Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 Gold (XAUUSD) enters today’s session with a constructive backdrop: ISM manufacturing’s contraction underscores a soft-growth tone that helps keep real-yield headwinds contained. In that environment, dips are more likely to be absorbed than extended, provided U.S. data don’t spark a sharp rise in yields or the dollar. Technically, the breakout remains intact while price holds above the 3510 area, giving a clear, high-quality level to lean against. The trade plan is straightforward: accumulate on pullbacks to 3510–3525, with a momentum add above 3555/3565 once buyers confirm control. Risk is well-defined with tactical invalidation at 3488…...