Author: TerraBullMarkets

USDJPY Trade Setup – 10.6.25 USD/JPY enters the week trading around 150.40 after a strong Asian session, with price reclaiming and holding above the psychologically important 150.00 handle following Sanae Takaichi’s win to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister. The macro backdrop continues to favour a topside bias: policy divergence remains intact as the Bank of Japan signals only gradual normalization while U.S. policy expectations stay comparatively tighter, and broader risk appetite has kept the yen on the back foot. Technically, the pair has transitioned from range to expansion, prior resistance in the 150.00 – 150.20 zone is now acting…...

US Oil WTI Trade Setup – 10.6.25 US Oil WTI trades near 60.28 Friday 3rd October after a soft week, ending down -1.34%. Our base case for the coming week is to sell strength into former support turned resistance within a still-intact weekly downtrend. The technical map is clean: first supply at 61.50 – 62.20 (role-reversal), with a secondary stop-hunt band between 62.80- 63.10. The macro tone remains demand-fragile and headline-sensitive; inventory dynamics and growth signals have not yet argued for a sustained crude rebound. This backdrop, combined with clear technical levels overhead, offers attractive, asymmetric risk: reward shorting to…...

EURUSD Trade Setup – 3rd October EUR/USD enters Friday with a constructive bias while dip demand continues to build above 1.1680 – 1.1700. The macro skew is for a softer USD into European/UK services PMIs this morning and U.S. ISM Services at 15:00 UK time, with ongoing uncertainty around the timing of broader U.S. data keeping dollar rallies vulnerable. On the euro side, stabilizing activity data and a steady ECB backdrop limit downside, while options flows clustered around 1.17 – 1.18 encourage mean-reversion on dips. Technically, the pair has carved higher swing lows since mid-September and remains supported on intraday…...

EURCHF Trade Setup – 02.10.25 As of Thu, 2 Oct 2025 , EUR/CHF is consolidating just above 0.93 after a multi-session basing pattern. We are initiating a pro-EUR/CHF long with a scale-in on dips (0.9320–0.9340) and an add on sustained acceptance above 0.9375. The edge is clean and asymmetric: Fundamentally, the SNB has the policy rate at 0% and continues to signal a willingness to be active in FX to avoid undesired CHF strength, historically a strong cap on abrupt CHF appreciation. On the euro side, the latest flash HICP holding a touch above target reduces the urgency for further…...

USDJPY Trade Setup – 01.10.25 As of Wednesday, 1 Oct 2025 (06:55 UK), USD/JPY is trading in the 147s, having faded repeatedly below the 150 ceiling. Our plan is a tactical short, selling 147.90–148.30 into supply and adding on a break below 147.20. The edge comes from the three-way alignment of drivers: Fundamentals: BoJ’s trajectory toward further normalization versus U.S. growth/data uncertainty and shutdown noise Technicals: a series of lower highs under 150 with 147.20 the pivot that unlocks downside Sentiment / positioning: elevated speculative JPY shorts that are vulnerable to a squeeze if U.S. data underwhelms or risk appetite…...

GBPJPY Trade Setup – 30.9.25 As of Tuesday, 30 September 2025 (05:17 UK), GBP/JPY is hovering just below the psychologically important 200 handle after repeated intraday rejections. We are initiating a tactical short, looking to sell into 199.80–200.30 with an add-on below 198.80. The trade’s edge is threefold: Fundamentally, the BoE’s recent shift toward a more dovish, growth-sensitive stance reduces sterling’s carry appeal, while Japan’s policy trajectory and improving corporate sentiment keep a risk of further BoJ normalization in play—supportive of the yen on dips. Technically, the pair has carved out lower momentum highs into a well-defined supply zone around…...

Chicago PMI SEP – What to Expect – 30.9.25 On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 14:45 UK (09:45 ET), the MNI Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) offers an early read on Midwest activity across manufacturing-adjacent firms and services-facing suppliers, often a tone-setter ahead of national PMIs. After August’s drop to 41.5, signaling a deep contraction), consensus expectation are sitting at 40.0 while we are looking for a modest stabilization near 41.2. The balance of signals, mixed regional Fed surveys, a softer but still expanding national flash output picture, and firmer August durables orders, argues against a collapse into the 30s…

USDCAD Trade Setup – 29.9.25 We think USD/CAD is offering a clean trend-continuation long after a multi-week staircase higher built on policy divergence, soft Canadian growth momentum, and subdued crude. The BoC’s recent cut and guidance that further easing is possible keeps the front end in Canada heavier than in the U.S., while domestic activity data have been choppy at best—an unfriendly backdrop for CAD when oil is stuck in the mid-60s. That macro mix supports buy-the-dip behavior so long as price holds above the most recent breakout shelf. Technically, the pair is respecting a rising structure from the mid-1.36s…...

US JOLTs Job Openings Preview – 30.9.25 On Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the BLS releases August JOLTS, one of the cleanest reads on underlying U.S. labor demand and an input the Fed watches for confirmation that the jobs market is re-balancing without undue stress. July openings printed 7.181M, with quits steady at 2.0%, leaving roughly one unemployed worker per vacancy, far cooler than 2022’s extremes but still tight by historical standards. For August, our base case is a modest downside versus the 7.1M consensus, with a point estimate around 7.0 – 7.05M. That call leans…

US Pending Home Sales AUG – What to Expect On Monday, 29 September 2025 at 15:00 UK (10:00 ET), the National Association of Realtors releases the August Pending Home Sales report, an MLS-based gauge of contract signings that typically leads existing-home closings by one to two months. Against a backdrop of slightly easier mortgage rates, higher active inventory, and softening new-listing flow, our base case looks for modest stabilization rather than a surge in demand. Specifically, we expect MoM +0.2% (vs Street +0.1% and your +1.7% forecast) and YoY roughly flat (0.0%) (vs your +1.9%). The drivers are a small…