Week Ahead in Markets – 22 – 26 Sep As we head into the week of 22–26 September 2025, markets will key off a tight cluster of high impact data that shape the near-term path for markets. Our focus is on forward-looking activity gauges (flash PMIs), US growth and capex signals (Q2 GDP revision, durable goods, weekly claims), and pivotal inflation reads (Australia’s monthly CPI and, most importantly, Friday’s US PCE/core PCE). PCE Data The marquee print is Friday’s US Personal Income & Outlays for August – i.e., the PCE and core PCE price indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Consensus…
Author: TerraBullMarkets
GBPUSD Trade Setup – Update Following BoE – 18/9/2025 After a largish downtick into the U.S. open, trading at -0.52% – 1.3554 at time of writing, price has rotated back into our buy-the-dip zone without breaking structure. The BoE’s hold with slower QT keeps the domestic backdrop supportive on the margin, while the Fed’s easing path remains a medium-term USD headwind, even if intraday dollar firmness created the pullback. Technically, the pair continues to defend the 1.35 – 1.36 pivot (former resistance turned support), and positioning remains favorable: GBP isn’t a crowded long and retail traders typically lean short into…...
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UK Retail Sales Aug – 19/9/2025 – What to Expect U.K. consumers step back into focus on Friday, 19 September 2025 at 07:00 BST, when the ONS publishes August Retail Sales. After July’s solid +0.6% m/m (+1.1% y/y), the street is looking for +0.4% m/m and +0.6% y/y. Our estimate base case is a touch firmer – +0.5% m/m and +0.8% y/y – reflecting supportive seasonal dynamics (back-to-school, warm weather) and steady non-food momentum, partly offset by still-cautious essentials spending. Softer goods inflation should also help translate value growth into modest volume gains. Headline calls Retail Sales MoM (volumes): +0.5%…
USDCHF Trade Setup – 18/9/2025 USD/CHF sits in a well-defined downtrend after the FOMC delivered a 25 bp “risk-management” cut and reaffirmed an easing path, leaving the dollar with a medium-term headwind despite the brief post-presser firming in yields and DXY. Into today’s US data and ahead of next week’s SNB, the USD leg remains the primary driver. Technically, 0.79–0.80 has acted as a persistent supply pocket, and sentiment adds confluence: retail remains heavily long USD/CHF while earlier-month CFTC prints showed CHF selling—both supportive of downside squeezes on any USD softness. Against that backdrop, our A+ plan is to sell…...
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Initial Jobless Claims What to Expect – 18/9/25 U.S. labor-market momentum gets a fresh read on Thursday, 18 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when Initial Jobless Claims hit the tape. Following last week’s spike to 263k, the street is looking for 240k, while our base case is a softer-landing 250k, a partial unwind of holiday-related distortions but still above the summer trend. Beyond the headline, we’ll focus on continuing claims, the four-week average, and any state-level breadth that confirms cooling demand for workers. With rates and the dollar sensitive to signs of slack, a print above consensus would typically favor…
Fed Rate Decision – Our Call vs The Street U.S. monetary policy returns to the spotlight on Wednesday, 17 September 2025 (19:00 BST), when the Federal Reserve delivers its rate decision and updated projections, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 21:15 BST. With the policy rate currently at 4.50%, consensus is looking for a 25 bp cut to 4.25%, reflecting cooler labor momentum and continued, if uneven, disinflation. This article frames what matters most for markets, the statement language, the new dot plot, and any signals on the pace of easing, while contrasting our base case with the street’s…
Gold Trade Setup – 15.9.2025 Gold starts the 15–19 September 2025 week with an A+ long bias. The macro mix is clean: the Fed is expected to ease, real yields are trending lower, the USD is softer on balance, and hedging demand remains firm into a heavy central-bank/data calendar. In terms of pricing, bullion is holding a strong up-channel with a sequence of higher lows above the 3,550 area, and dip demand keeps reappearing near 3,585–3,620. That gives us precise execution: buy pullbacks 3,585–3,620, add toward 3,550, and respect a daily-close invalidation below 3,520. With positioning skewed toward momentum longs…...
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US Retail Sales What to Expect – 16/9/2025 U.S. consumers take center stage on Tuesday, 16 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when the Census Bureau releases the August US Retail Sales report. After July’s solid +0.5% MoM, the street is looking for a slower +0.3%, while our base case is a slightly firmer +0.4%. The mix matters as much as the headline: higher gasoline prices should lift nominal receipts at the pump, non-store/e-commerce remains resilient into back-to-school, and autos may give back a touch after July’s pop. With the Fed meeting looming, this print will help shape the narrative around…
GBPUSD Trade Idea – 15/9/2025 We are looking at GBP/USD as we go into the week of 15–19 September 2025 with an A+ long bias. This is supported by a clean three-pillar alignment. Fundamentally, the balance of risks tilts against the USD into a Fed easing decision, while the BoE is expected to hold, keeping UK-US rate differentials from moving further against sterling. Sticky UK inflation and resilient services dynamics reduce the odds of an aggressively dovish BoE pivot in the near term. Technically, price has reclaimed the 1.35 handle and is carving a sequence of higher lows, with 1.3550–1.3600…...
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Week-ahead Macro Data Brief 12/9/2025 Next week is book-ended by demand checks and dominated by central banks. Asia opens with China retail sales, a quick read on the strength of domestic consumption that will set the tone for commodities and cyclicals. Europe follows with Germany’s ZEW survey, a clean gauge of sentiment as industry and exports struggle to regain traction. In the U.S., retail sales and import prices refine the growth–inflation mix just hours before the main event: the FOMC decision and updated SEP/dot plot on Wednesday with the Bank of England on Thursday and weekly jobless claims as a…
