Initial Jobless Claims What to Expect – 18/9/25 U.S. labor-market momentum gets a fresh read on Thursday, 18 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when Initial Jobless Claims hit the tape. Following last week’s spike to 263k, the street is looking for 240k, while our base case is a softer-landing 250k, a partial unwind of holiday-related distortions but still above the summer trend. Beyond the headline, we’ll focus on continuing claims, the four-week average, and any state-level breadth that confirms cooling demand for workers. With rates and the dollar sensitive to signs of slack, a print above consensus would typically favor…
Author: TerraBullMarkets
Fed Rate Decision – Our Call vs The Street U.S. monetary policy returns to the spotlight on Wednesday, 17 September 2025 (19:00 BST), when the Federal Reserve delivers its rate decision and updated projections, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 21:15 BST. With the policy rate currently at 4.50%, consensus is looking for a 25 bp cut to 4.25%, reflecting cooler labor momentum and continued, if uneven, disinflation. This article frames what matters most for markets, the statement language, the new dot plot, and any signals on the pace of easing, while contrasting our base case with the street’s…
Gold Trade Setup – 15.9.2025 Gold starts the 15–19 September 2025 week with an A+ long bias. The macro mix is clean: the Fed is expected to ease, real yields are trending lower, the USD is softer on balance, and hedging demand remains firm into a heavy central-bank/data calendar. In terms of pricing, bullion is holding a strong up-channel with a sequence of higher lows above the 3,550 area, and dip demand keeps reappearing near 3,585–3,620. That gives us precise execution: buy pullbacks 3,585–3,620, add toward 3,550, and respect a daily-close invalidation below 3,520. With positioning skewed toward momentum longs…...
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US Retail Sales What to Expect – 16/9/2025 U.S. consumers take center stage on Tuesday, 16 September 2025 at 13:30 BST, when the Census Bureau releases the August US Retail Sales report. After July’s solid +0.5% MoM, the street is looking for a slower +0.3%, while our base case is a slightly firmer +0.4%. The mix matters as much as the headline: higher gasoline prices should lift nominal receipts at the pump, non-store/e-commerce remains resilient into back-to-school, and autos may give back a touch after July’s pop. With the Fed meeting looming, this print will help shape the narrative around…
GBPUSD Trade Idea – 15/9/2025 We are looking at GBP/USD as we go into the week of 15–19 September 2025 with an A+ long bias. This is supported by a clean three-pillar alignment. Fundamentally, the balance of risks tilts against the USD into a Fed easing decision, while the BoE is expected to hold, keeping UK-US rate differentials from moving further against sterling. Sticky UK inflation and resilient services dynamics reduce the odds of an aggressively dovish BoE pivot in the near term. Technically, price has reclaimed the 1.35 handle and is carving a sequence of higher lows, with 1.3550–1.3600…...
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Week-ahead Macro Data Brief 12/9/2025 Next week is book-ended by demand checks and dominated by central banks. Asia opens with China retail sales, a quick read on the strength of domestic consumption that will set the tone for commodities and cyclicals. Europe follows with Germany’s ZEW survey, a clean gauge of sentiment as industry and exports struggle to regain traction. In the U.S., retail sales and import prices refine the growth–inflation mix just hours before the main event: the FOMC decision and updated SEP/dot plot on Wednesday with the Bank of England on Thursday and weekly jobless claims as a…
EURUSD Trade Idea – 12/9/2025 We are initiating a sell-the-rally stance in EUR/USD, preferring entries into 1.1745–1.1780 where price has repeatedly met supply, with a momentum add below 1.1690 if sellers regain control. The near-term macro skew still leans USD-firm after the hotter-than-expected August CPI, while the ECB’s hold and data-dependent tone offers little incremental support for the euro. Into today’s UK GDP and University of Michigan prints – and with the FOMC up next—the balance of risks favors USD resilience over EUR follow-through. Positioning adds asymmetry: EUR remains net-long among speculative accounts, leaving room for a disappointment bleed if…...
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EURJPY Trade Idea – 11/9/2025 EURJPY Trade Idea: We’re treating 173.00–173.80 as the primary fade zone in EUR/JPY, with a tactical add only on a clear wick/rejection in 174.10–174.40. Risk is tightly defined at 174.60 (or a daily close >174.40). The edge is three-fold: fundamentals (ECB likely cautious while the yen retains haven support into next week’s BoJ), technicals (repeated failures beneath 174–175 with rising-wedge risk), and positioning (EUR long vs JPY long—an ECB underwhelm plus any risk-off tends to push the cross lower). Initial magnets sit at 171.10, then 169.40. Pair / Asset Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation…...
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview – 12th September We head into tomorrow’s print looking for a modest softening in sentiment following August’s downtick. The prior headline was 58.2; consensus is currently 58, and we are looking look for slightly below at 56.5 – 57.0. Our bias reflects softer labor perceptions and a small uptick in gasoline prices keeping inflation expectations sticky, partly offset by equity strength and easier mortgage rates. Market impact should be contained unless we see an outsized move in 1-yr inflation expectations (above 5%) or a headline below 55, which would carry clearer implications for front-end rates and…
US CPI & Initial Weekly Claims Preview – 11/9/2025 The August CPI lands on Thu 11 Sep, 13:30 UK (08:30 ET) alongside Initial Jobless Claims, setting the tone for front-end rates and the USD ahead of the Fed blackout. The Street is looking for Core CPI +0.3% MoM (3.1% YoY) with the CPI index at 323.9. Our base case is the same. Sticky services (most notably shelter) offset by soft core goods, with travel categories the being the key swing risk. Claims should remain range bound (235–240k), consistent with a gradually cooling but still resilient labor market. Upside core risk…
