Author: TerraBullMarkets

EURUSD Trade Setup – 4/9/2025 EUR/USD presents a high-conviction long for the coming sessions. On the macro side, Euro-area inflation has stabilized enough to keep the ECB patient, while U.S. growth data have softened at the margin, leaving the market biased toward additional Fed easing. That policy divergence narrative, combined with contained real yields, reduces downside USD carry and supports EUR on dips. Technically, the pair continues to carve higher lows from mid-August, with well-defined inflection levels at 1.1725/1.1760 that can unlock momentum if reclaimed. Positioning and options flow (elevated but not extreme EUR longs; persistent USD-put demand) argue…...

EURCHF Trade Setup – 3/9/2025 EURCHF is setting up as a high-conviction long with fundamentals, technicals, and positioning pulling in the same direction. On the macro side, the SNB’s easy stance and willingness to lean against CHF strength leave the franc with a softer bias, while the euro’s data pulse has stabilized, reducing downside tails for EUR. Technically, price continues to hold a 0.932–0.935 support basin, offering a well-defined place to lean against, with clear upside triggers at 0.9385, 0.9420, and 0.9480. Sentiment and dealer positioning are benign—CHF’s haven bid remains muted outside of risk shocks—so dips are more likely…...

ISM Services PMI Expectations – 4/9/2025US ISM Services PMI (Aug) — Preview & Market FramingThursday’s ISM Services PMI  release (04 Sep, 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a market already parsing mixed signals – manufacturing still sub-50, labor demand has been gradually cooling, and services-led inflation has been proving sticky. Consensus looks for a modest return to expansion near 51.0 (prior 50.1); our base case sits just above the 50 line at 50.7–51.0.What will matter most isn’t the headline alone but the composition:Business Activity and New Orders gauge near-term growth momentum; sustained prints above 52 would further support a…

EURUSD A+ Trade Setup — 2 Sep 2025 Thesis: Stay constructive EUR/USD and EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup buy weakness. The pair is carving a sequence of higher lows since mid-August while the macro backdrop tilts USD-soft as markets lean toward a September Fed cut and real yields compress (gold’s strength is the tell). Options flow remains USD-put supportive. This is a “buy pullbacks, not breakouts” day—scale in on dips, add only after clean confirmations. EUR/USD A+ Trade Setup Pair (Ref Px) Bias & Entries Stop / Invalidation Targets Why A+ (fundamentals • technicals • positioning) Near-term catalysts (UK time) EUR/USD…...

ISM Manufacturing PMI Expectations – 2/9/2025 Our ISM Manufacturing PMI’s Analysis The August ISM Manufacturing PMI lands into a messy—but improving—backdrop. The Street sits around 48.6 (vs. 48.0 in July), while our call is a touch firmer at 49.0 (48.5–49.5): still contractionary, but edging closer to the 50 break-even. What nudges us above consensus isn’t a single blowout print, but a mosaic: the S&P Global flash at 53.3 (which typically runs hotter than ISM) points to firmer orders and output; core capex orders +1.1% m/m and shipments +0.7% in July hint at steadier equipment demand; and the regional picture, though…

26th August – USDCHF Short GBPAUD Long Markets head into the final week of August with a clear “cut-watch” bias after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks nudged major houses toward a September Fed easing call. With durable goods due today, Q2 GDP (2nd) later in the week, and July PCE on Friday, the dollar’s rallies look fragile unless the data re-accelerate. Nvidia’s results on Wednesday add a second macro-beta for equity risk. Rank Market (px) Bias & Triggers (enter) Structural Stop (invalidation) Targets (scale out) Why this is A+ today (T • F • S/Flows) 1 USD/CHF ~0.81 Short rallies…...

USD/JPY Long-Trend Setup USD/JPY Long-Trend Setup: Why 148–150 Is Back on the Radar The dollar-yen cross has snapped out of its early-summer drift and vaulted back above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since February, reaching ¥147.19 on 9 July – a two-and-a-half-week high – as the greenback rides an upswing in U.S. yields and tariff-driven inflation fears. Reuters The technical breakout puts the familiar 148.00/150.00 band – the June swing high and the psychological round number – back in play for trend-followers over the next several sessions. Market & Bias Live Quote* Entry Plan (next 48-72…...

USDCHF, EURUSD & USDJPY: High-Conviction FX Trade Setups to Watch After SNB and Fed Shifts Financial markets are tip-toeing through one of the trickiest macro cross-currents in years. The Federal Reserve has just delivered a “hawkish pause”, trimming its forecast for future easing while warning that Donald Trump’s tariff volley could lift goods-price inflation over the summer. At the same time, headline risk is climbing: Washington is reportedly drawing up weekend strike options against Iran, and safe-haven flows are zig-zagging on every new headline. Europe and Switzerland are marching to a different beat. The SNB is poised to slash rates…...

UK Inflation Miss Sparks Dovish BoE Talk as Oil Prices and Fed Loom Large Inflation Underdelivers in the UK as Markets Eye BoE and Global Risk Sentiment Fresh UK inflation data released Wednesday offered little validation for the Bank of England’s recent hawkish rhetoric, as softer-than-expected figures in key areas reignited dovish speculation just ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. Headline CPI for May came in at 3.4% year-on-year, a slight deceleration but marginally above expectations. Core inflation met forecasts at 3.5%. However, the services inflation component—closely monitored by the BoE as a gauge of domestic pricing pressure—slipped to…

Forex Markets News – 11th June Markets on Edge Ahead of US CPI as BoJ Flags Heightened Global Uncertainty Markets are treading cautiously midweek as investors prepare for potentially market-moving US inflation data, while Japanese central bank officials warn of ongoing global economic uncertainty. Sentiment is being shaped by three key drivers: Wednesday’s highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, lackluster market response to a tentative US-China trade deal, and comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda underscoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. BoJ’s Ueda: Global and Domestic Economic Risks Remain Elevated Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda offered…